Increasing trend
An increasing trend is a pattern in which graphed data points rise over time, moving upward on the y-axis across sessions.
An increasing (or ascending, upward) trend means the measured value is getting larger over a series of sessions. On a line graph, the data path climbs from left to right. It does not require every point to be higher than the one before; the overall direction across the phase is what matters.
Whether an increasing trend is desirable depends on the target. For a skill being taught, such as percentage of correct tacts, minutes of on-task behavior or the number of independent steps in a hygiene routine, an increasing trend usually shows progress. For a behavior targeted for reduction, such as aggression or self-injury, an increasing trend is a concern. A short-term increase in problem behavior right after extinction begins can also be an extinction burst, which the supervisor will interpret.
An increasing trend during baseline for a skill can be important, because the skill may be improving without intervention, which makes later effects harder to interpret. In any case, RBTs report notable trends to the supervisor rather than changing procedures themselves.
Example and non-example
| Example | A teen's number of independently completed laundry steps goes 3, 4, 4, 6, 7 across five sessions, an increasing trend in a skill being taught. |
|---|---|
| Non-example | A graph in which the number of tantrums goes from 10 to 7 to 4 to 2 shows a decreasing trend. |
Don't confuse it with
| Decreasing trend | An increasing trend moves upward on the y-axis; a decreasing trend moves downward. |
|---|---|
| Level | An increasing trend describes direction over time; a high level describes where data sit, even if they are flat. |
Test yourself
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Question 1Which best describes the trend in these data?
Percentage of trials correct by Session: 1: 20, 2: 30, 3: 35, 4: 45, 5: 50, 6: 60, 7: 70. Phases: Intervention from session 1. Show answer
B: An increasing trend. The data path rises from the first session to the last, so the overall direction, the trend, is increasing.
- A: The data path goes up, not down.
- C: The values change steadily in one direction, so there is a clear trend.
- D: The points rise steadily without large jumps up and down.
Task A.7 · 40-hour curriculum section C
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Question 2Which best describes these data?
Number of independent requests by Session: 1: 10, 2: 30, 3: 20, 4: 40, 5: 30, 6: 50, 7: 40, 8: 60. Phases: Intervention from session 1. Show answer
A: An increasing trend with some bounce. Although the points go up and down from one session to the next, the overall direction is upward. The data show both an increasing trend and some variability.
- B: Each low point and each high point is higher than the one before, so the direction is up.
- C: The ups and downs sit around a line that is clearly rising.
- D: The values both bounce and rise, so they are neither stable nor flat.
Task A.7 · 40-hour curriculum section C
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Question 3Which describes the change from baseline to intervention?
Number of instances of property destruction by Session: 1: 2, 2: 4, 3: 5, 4: 7, 5: 8, 6: 7, 7: 5, 8: 4, 9: 2, 10: 1. Phases: Baseline from session 1, Intervention from session 6. Show answer
D: The trend went from increasing to decreasing. In baseline the data path rises across sessions; in intervention it falls. The direction of the trend reversed when conditions changed.
- A: Baseline rises and intervention falls, not the other way around.
- B: Only the baseline data rise; the intervention data fall.
- C: The direction of the data path clearly changes at the phase change line.
Task A.7 · 40-hour curriculum section C
Answer every question to see your score.
On the RBT exam
This term belongs to task A.7 Identifying trends in graphed data in content area A, Data Collection and Graphing, which is 13 of the 75 scored questions.